World Bank Revises China's 2025 Growth Forecast Up to 4.9 Percent
The international financial institution announced Thursday that it had lifted its China outlook by 0.4 percentage points from earlier estimates, crediting supportive fiscal interventions and monetary easing that have bolstered consumer activity and capital investment across the world's second-largest economy.
Looking ahead to 2026, the World Bank anticipates 4.4% growth, with recent budgetary commitments and tentative stabilization in international trade relations expected to underpin manufacturing output and overseas sales.
Economic momentum remained robust through the third quarter of 2025, the institution noted, with year-to-date GDP climbing 5.2% compared to the previous year. Yet persistent vulnerabilities continue to shadow the recovery.
"China's economy maintained solid momentum in the third quarter of 2025, bringing year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.2% year on year," the bank confirmed in its official statement.
Consumer caution persists as employment conditions remain fragile and residential property values continue their downward trajectory. Capital expenditure decelerated during the July-September period, pressured by the ongoing property market correction, manufacturing sector margin compression, and constrained municipal budgets that have crimped infrastructure development.
Mara Warwick, the World Bank's Division Director overseeing China, Mongolia, and Korea, emphasized the critical shift in growth drivers facing Beijing.
"China's growth in the coming years will depend more on domestic demand," Warwick stated. "In addition to short-term fiscal stimulus, advancing structural reforms of the social protection system and creating a more predictable environment for businesses can help boost confidence and lay the groundwork for resilient, sustainable growth."
The institution's analysis reveals a delicate balance of risks surrounding the forecast. Extended weakness in the real estate sector, stagnant wage growth, labor market fragility, and unresolved trade policy tensions could undermine both household spending and business investment beyond current expectations.
However, the World Bank acknowledged potential upside scenarios that could push growth beyond projections.
"On the upside, higher-than-expected fiscal spending, including stronger measures to enhance social protection, and more decisive policy actions to stabilize the property sector could lift growth above current projections," the institution concluded.
Legal Disclaimer:
EIN Presswire provides this news content "as is" without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
